International Policy Fellowship

Research Project

“Narcotics through the Caucasus towards Europe:

Trafficking Patterns and impact on local State’s and EU security”

Problem statement

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, borders in the Caucasus region have become very transparent and insecure. This is partly due to the endemic and increasing corruption in the state bodies of the South Caucasian republics and partly due to the lack of technical expertise and equipment among the local governments to guard the borders. More importantly, the ethnic conflicts in the Caucasus and the subsequent de-facto change of state borders as well as the establishment of “uncontrolled” territories (Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and others) also contributed to the increase of cross-border smuggling.

Transparent and insecure borders in the Caucasus are used for trafficking of various illegal goods, such as weapons, drugs and even human trafficking. The passage of narcotics through these countries has been steadily increasing in the last decade, both according to the official statistics and to the anecdotal evidence. For instance, on May 12, 2006 the Ministry of National Security of Azerbaijan has arrested a transnational criminal group which was exporting narcotics through the path Iran-Nakhchivan (Azerbaijani exclave)-Azerbaijan-Russia. This group, composed of 6 persons, including Azerbaijanis and Iranians, has exported total of 18 kg of hashish and 150 grams of heroin. The final destination of this group’s work was St. Petersburg. On another case, on June 19, 2006 the drug dealer was arrested on Baku-Astrakhan (Russia) train with 15 kg of opium.

There are hundreds of similar operations and criminal cases every year. Simultaneously, the rising production of drugs in Asia, primarily in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, creates bigger demand for the easy and quick transit corridor for these drugs from Asian suppliers to the European consumers. Particularly, the increased production of opium and heroin, have been affecting both the volume of transit and the domestic consumption in Caucasus countries. On June 23, 2006 alone Azerbaijani law enforcement bodies have destroyed more than 100 kg of confiscated drugs, such as marihuana, hashish and opium.

The rising smuggling of drugs in the Caucasus might be posing a threat both to the security of the EU as well as the stability of the South Caucasian nations. Political institutions remain weak and at the embryonic stage of its development in Caucasus countries. Power is rather vested in individuals than state institutions. In such situations, systemic corruption of the state officials by the drug dealers and the increasing involvement of the law enforcement officials in the protection of the “drug trade” make the state building in these countries even slower and more vulnerable to outside players.

State bodies, having bugged down in corruption and high level of interconnectedness with the illegal drug traders, become incapable of fighting other outside threats to the national security of the countries. This primarily related to the human trafficking, spread of HIV/AIDS, illegal transfer of weapons and the development and growth of clan based business groupings. Whether these state bodies’ performance fosters the strengthening of national security and overall political stability in the country remains under serious doubt.

Increasing drug trafficking in the region also affects the economic and social stability in these nations, as more and more young people become addicted to the narcotics and thus the traditional values of families get broken down. There are already 18,000 drug addicts in Azerbaijan alone and according to UN coordinator for the work with law enforcement bodies Mazahir Efendiyev the average age of drug addicts in Azerbaijan has decreased from 25 years old to 20. Drug addiction leads to economic disparities and social conflicts in the society.

At the same time, the easy passage of the drugs from Asia into Europe via Caucasus and the inability/ unwillingness of the local law enforcement bodies to effectively fight this problem create major economic, social and even political challenges for the EU. The latter increasingly understands the risks of the situation for the long-term security of the wider Europe and thus starts paying more attention to the issue.

What makes it even more dangerous is that the nature of drug business in the South Caucasus remains unclear to the local analysts and decision makers. The links between the drug dealers and the wider criminal society, such as terror groups and insurgents also remain understudied. Finally, the mapping of the trafficking routes is poorly analyzed and heavily reliant upon official data. In many instance, the mapping of the real drug smuggling routes is not done at all or inaccurately developed. This in turn leads to poor anti-narcotics measures and policies.

Legislation basis for the fight is drug smuggling is poorly developed and the exiting laws fail to transform into real action. The law on narcotics was adopted in Azerbaijan only in 2005. Thus, if left understudies and without proper addressing, the problem of drug trafficking in the region can potentially grow to the level, when it will be virtually impossible to reverse it. It will turn the region into Columbia style area, where even federal governments will be unable to fight drug mafia.

Research Questions

The proposed research will strive to fill the gap on these issues. More specifically, it will address two separate tasks:

1) Mapping the development of routes and actors in the Eurasian narcotics trade, especially the South Caucasus as well as the border regions of Central Asia. This task will strive to provide information and intelligence on the development of narcotics trafficking routes from Afghanistan and Iran toward Russia and Western Europe, as well as provide an understanding of the main actors involved in this business. A part of this project will assess the development of major trade routes. In so doing, it will address the differences in trafficking between Caucasian states. In addition, the study will aim to identify, to the extent possible, the likely and confirmed actors in the trafficking of narcotics. It will seek to ascertain the degree of involvement of criminal groups, state officials, and violent non-state actors in the drug business – and to what degree local as well as non-regional actors are involved, including European or multinational criminal groups, as well as ethnic-based criminal groups.

2) Secondly and mainly, the research project will study the real impact of the drug trafficking on the political and economic security of the South Caucasus states and the likelihood of the collapse of these states under the threat of drug traders. A particular attention will be paid to the security of these nations through the prism of involvement of the state official in the drug trade and whether this means the “controlled” nature of the drug trade or “uncontrolled.” In the former case, the involvement of the state actors in the drug trade might bring more “possession” over this illegal business and thus government might be able to control, influence and affect drug trade at its will. In the latter case, the drug trade might become more influential than state actors thus turning the region’s security into Columbia style chaos and disaster.

Most of the research data will be collected through the informal interviews, conversations at the grassroots levels, round table discussions with the experts in the field, secondary data analysis and literature review. This will allow shedding a light on the problem of drug trafficking in the region parallel to the information given by official sources.

The obtained information will be shared with both domestic and EU policy makers with the purpose of improving the anti-narcotics policies and programs and developing a more comprehensive view to the existing problem. It will also help understanding the nature of drug trafficking in the region and its effect on state building and security of the newly independent states. Finally, it will help to understand the multiple players that exit within each country who fight narcotics trafficking and their role in this process. For instance, in Azerbaijan alone, Ministry of National Security and Ministry of Internal Affairs compete with each other in this process, with the latter providing 80% of the confiscated drugs.